Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 3.081322 3.713037 4.419829 5.266022 6.248175 7.348731 8.671641
2025-03-23 2.150863 2.985116 4.031985 5.426577 7.218084 9.423021 12.320350
2025-03-30 1.542801 2.428787 3.657837 5.450015 7.952130 11.270869 15.944384
2025-04-06 1.144947 2.020850 3.349407 5.444473 8.582338 13.009032 19.601337
2025-04-13 0.870456 1.708527 3.087607 5.419360 9.131933 14.652346 23.268398
2025-04-20 0.753585 1.617174 3.137268 5.856668 10.401926 17.444177 28.840283
2025-04-27 0.625064 1.466385 3.048772 6.038203 11.270754 19.696249 33.795254
2025-05-04 0.532121 1.356872 3.005859 6.278834 12.248476 22.192630 39.326081
2025-05-11 0.432664 1.203875 2.846185 6.273402 12.787086 24.007477 43.900355
2025-05-18 0.335589 1.025254 2.594887 6.045025 12.883813 25.069601 47.300097
2025-05-25 0.254544 0.857599 2.327367 5.732204 12.769918 25.734930 50.055203
2025-06-01 0.204996 0.755459 2.182442 5.645659 13.070941 27.149468 54.196510
2025-06-08 0.161271 0.655388 2.023956 5.512604 13.283004 28.459450 58.335841
2025-06-15 0.144705 0.634294 2.060442 5.832384 14.474661 31.725957 66.296872
2025-06-22 0.121550 0.581581 2.000948 5.913965 15.166126 34.084760 72.744764
2025-06-29 0.100361 0.526252 1.920335 5.928718 15.710079 36.194899 78.870330
2025-07-06 0.082142 0.473324 1.832799 5.909206 16.171012 38.170747 84.869206
2025-07-13 0.078094 0.478705 1.925870 6.383077 17.826642 42.723240 96.193651
2025-07-20 0.068476 0.454326 1.917993 6.579638 18.844019 46.014490 105.213867
2025-07-27 0.061222 0.437632 1.931766 6.839096 20.040104 49.769090 115.387263
2025-08-03 0.050832 0.398654 1.858140 6.833398 20.578701 52.144034 122.893263
2025-08-10 0.039247 0.344520 1.713182 6.587577 20.478609 53.106539 127.538463
2025-08-17 0.029178 0.290477 1.549785 6.250652 20.095880 53.398069 130.783096